By Sam Kmack | Arizona Republic
Scottsdale’s housing shortage may be far worse than city figures suggest, with thousands fewer units coming down the chute than was estimated and the city’s workforce being priced out of the market faster than anywhere else in the Valley, according to a recently released analysis.
The study from Elliott D. Pollack and Company — a local real estate and economic consulting firm — was presented at the Scottsdale City Council meeting on Wednesday. It was commissioned by a pro-development group called Home Arizona, and used estimated median salaries in the metro area to gauge affordability.
It shows that living in Scottsdale is impossible for the typical firefighter or teacher, for example, and that this is the only city in metro Phoenix where police officers are unable to afford anything larger than a one-bedroom apartment.
Nurses can only afford a two-bedroom here, while none of the other essential workers in the analysis — chefs, construction workers, retail staff and waiters — typically earn enough to afford any housing at all.
“There is no place for essential workers to live anymore,” said Elliot Pollack, who chalks the issue up to a market imbalance that could have serious ramifications for the city. “It’s a major economic development issue because how are you going to get people to move more employees here when there’s no housing for them?”
The situation appears to be deteriorating at a rapid pace. Just two years ago rentals were affordable for most of the workers in the analysis, but their estimated earnings for 2021 and 2022 suggest they’ve been consistently priced out each year since then.
Nearly all of them can afford to live in neighboring cities like Phoenix and Glendale, however, causing concern that Scottsdale’s lack of middle-income housing will push its workforce to other parts of the Valley — a scenario that means all residents would feel the pinch when city services slow down as a result.
“At some point, when services decline and taxes must go up to pay for higher salaries, Scottsdale will have to re-examine our housing priorities,” said Councilmember Tammy Caputi. “Fixing the problem is a matter of political will.”
The city might not have enough information to effectively tackle the problem, however.
Staffers don’t know exactly how much housing is needed and a senior economist for Pollack’s firm, Danny Court, said there could be as few as 2,200 new units coming online anytime soon — 80% less than the 11,200 units that a crucial city planning document suggests.
But even if all of the information becomes available, it’s unclear whether officials will take action, especially given that development has long been a point of contention in Scottsdale.
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