By Matt Roy | Daily Independent
As federal protections for renters distressed by the ongoing COVID-19 public health crisis are set to expire at the end of the month, officials and experts wonder what impact a long-dreaded eviction spike may have in Arizona.
The eviction moratorium enacted by Gov. Doug Ducey last March expired at the end of October, leaving only the moratorium imposed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
That moratorium will expire on July 31 if the CDC doesn’t move to extend it.
An estimated 3.2 million American renters believed they were at risk of eviction in June, according to surveys conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.
While local officials are uncertain about the impact of ending the CDC’s directive, some suggest it won’t be as bad here as in other states.
“It’s unknown what will happen Aug. 1 after the CDC’s ban ends, according to officials with Maricopa County’s Justice Courts, which handle the bulk of Arizona’s evictions,” the Associated Press reported on July 15. “They and housing advocates say they don’t expect too many evictions related to the end of CDC protections for at least 10 days to two weeks after the moratorium runs out.”
According to preliminary data from the Maricopa County Justice Court, 2,615 eviction lawsuits were filed in May, double the number filed last year — but less than half the number filed in May 2019, AP reported.
Thomas Brophy, national director of research and analytics for commercial real estate firm Colliers International, agreed that dire warnings of a wave of evictions in Arizona may be overblown.
“I know they keep talking about eviction Armageddon,” Brophy told Daily Independent. “But I don’t want to say that the end of the moratorium is going to have a huge or deleterious impact specifically in Arizona.”
One reason the eviction blade may be blunted here is many likely evictions have already happened, he said.
“Arizona led evictions, even during the pandemic. As I’m looking in terms of rent paid, who’s far behind, obviously that’s hitting more of the affordable housing segment than your market-rate stuff,” Brophy said.
Current delinquency rates in the state may be a better bellwether of the looming crisis than some reporting, which has relied primarily on Census Bureau survey data as opposed to real-time, local delinquency statistics, he suggested.
As of June, only 4% percent of renters in market-rate multifamily communities were in arrears; while an estimated 12% to 16% of low-income housing residents were behind on their rent in the Phoenix market.
That’s only 4% or 6% more than typical pre-pandemic delinquency levels, according to Brophy.
Meanwhile, because Arizona has been more austere than other states — in particular continuing to evict a greater percentage of renters throughout the pandemic — fewer await eviction here than elsewhere.
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